On November 11, I wrote that Hilary will win 2016 and Republicans will be on the side lines for 16 years! http://theghousediary.blogspot.com/2012/11/2016-presidential-elections-master-page.html And today, I read this:
Hillary Clinton Wins High Popularity, Majority Support for a 2016 Bid
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| Kevin Lamarque/AP Photo |
Carried by a new high in personal popularity and broad approval of
her work as secretary of state, Hillary Clinton closes out her
diplomatic career with majority support as a candidate for president in
2016.
Fifty-seven percent in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll say
they’d back a run by Clinton to succeed Barack Obama, vs. 37 percent
opposed. That includes a broad gender gap – 66 percent support for
Clinton among women, dropping to 49 percent among men.
Clinton is expected to step down soon from her leadership of the
State Department, a position she accepted after narrowly losing the
Democratic presidential nomination to Obama in 2008. She’s demurred on
the prospect of another bid for the presidency.
Clinton’s fared well during her tenure at State; 68 percent approve
of her work, second only to Colin Powell among the last five secretaries
of state. (He managed a remarkable 85 percent approval in 2002 and
2003.) Similarly, two-thirds in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates,
see Clinton favorably overall, numerically a new high in her long
public career as first lady, U.S. Senator, presidential candidate and
top U.S. diplomat.
Clinton’s recovered from personal favorability as low as 44 percent
in April 2008, during her presidential run; she also dropped that low in
June 2003, when she was discussed as a possible candidate in the 2004
presidential race, and in June 1996, during the Whitewater controversy.
Those dips underscore the potential risks should she climb back into the
political fray.
In another sign of the challenges of a political candidacy, intensity
of sentiment is better for Clinton personally, and as secretary of
state, than it is for her as a candidate. Her “strongly” favorable
rating and strong approval of her job performance outnumber her strong
negatives, in both cases, by more than 2-1 margins. Strong support for
her as a candidate also outweighs strong opposition, but much more
narrowly, by 9 percentage points, 36 to 27 percent.
2016 and GROUPS – Politics are comparative, so actual support for
Clinton as a candidate would depend more than anything on her opponents,
in the Democratic primaries and general election alike. That said,
having 57 percent willing to give you a look (55 percent among
registered voters) is not a bad starting point – and the differences
among groups are telling.
In addition to the gender gap there are sharp differences between age
and racial groups, generally similar to Obama’s support patterns. Young
adults, age 18 to 29, support Clinton for president by nearly 2-1; that
falls to an even split among seniors. And while she gets 52 percent
support among whites, that jumps to 70 percent among nonwhites, a
strongly Democratic group.
Clinton does less well among nonwhites than did Obama, who won
re-election with 80 percent of their support last month. That said,
while majorities of white men and married men say they’d oppose a
Clinton candidacy, she’s backed by more than six in 10 white women and
married women – two groups that Obama lost.
Among other groups, support for Clinton in 2016 tops out at eight in
10 Democrats and liberals, vs. 23 and 24 percent of Republicans and
strong conservatives, respectively. About two-thirds of moderates and
six in 10 independents say they’d support a Clinton candidacy.
It’s hard to see Clinton winning 23 percent of Republicans in an
actual campaign; no Democrat has come close to that mark in exit polls
dating back 36 years. That’s another sign that, while currently her
numbers are positive, actually running for president can be messier than
it looks from a popular perch at Foggy Bottom.
METHODOLOGY – This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by
landline and cell phone Nov. 28-Dec. 2, 2012, among a random national
sample of 1,020 adults. Results have a margin of sampling error of 4 points. The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by SSRS/Social Science Research Solutions of Media, Pa.
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