This blog will chronicle my comments and other critical articles, cartoons and videos. Time has come for us to put America first and Party 2nd. This page will have the good, bad and ugly of Republicans, Democrats and Libertarians alike, but will always offer pluralistic solutions effective June 8, 2012

Monday, February 29, 2016

Republican Delegate Scorecard for Feb. 24, 2016

This is a crucial prediction, I will check how it will fare with actuals

Mike Ghouse
Center for American Politics

Courtesy - Cook Political

Now that the primaries are underway, votes and delegates matter more than polls. On the Republican side, one candidate would need to capture 1,237 of 2,472 delegates to the Cleveland convention to clinch the nomination. To help you keep track of who's ahead, the Cook Political Report has devised a delegate scorecard estimating how many delegates each of the five leading GOP contenders would need to win in each state and territory to attain 1,237 delegates by June.

Donald Trump is currently "on pace" to win 1,237 delegates after he claimed all 50 delegates in South Carolina on Saturday and 14 of Nevada's 30 delegates on Tuesday, pushing him up to 114 percent of his delegate target. The next closest contender, Marco Rubio, is at only 49 percent of his delegate target. Rubio and others don't have a lot of time to stop Trump: although only five percent of GOP delegates have been allocated so far, 65 percent of GOP delegates will be allocated by the end of March.

The biggest loser out of South Carolina and Nevada is Ted Cruz, who needed 47 delegates from the Palmetto State and 11 delegates from the Silver State, according to our estimates. Instead, he won zero in South Carolina, calling into question where he can rack up delegate leads if he couldn't win a very conservative, heavily evangelical state. He only won six in Nevada. Arguably, his best states on Super Tuesday (March 1) are his home state of Texas as well as Oklahoma, but both award their delegates on a proportional basis.

Who's Ahead? GOP Delegates Won vs. Cook Targets 

Heading into Super Tuesday on March 1, it's increasingly apparent Rubio is the only Republican left who can stop Trump. But that's not to say Cruz, Kasich, and Ben Carson don't matter. The more delegates Cruz or any of the others win in the SEC primaries on Super Tuesday, the greater the odds that neither Rubio nor Trump will win 1,237 delegates by June, raising the prospect of a contested convention in Cleveland. 

By our math, Trump would need to win 246 of the available 624 delegates on Super Tuesday to be "on pace" for 1,237, while Rubio would need just 191. But to come close to that number, Rubio will have to prove he can meet tough viability thresholds in southern states like Texas and Georgia (where he will need 20 percent of the vote to be eligible to win statewide delegates), as well as show strength among more moderate Republican voters in places like Massachusetts and Vermont. 

The single most critical day of the Republican race will be March 15. That's when four large states - Florida, Ohio, Illinois, and Missouri - will award a total of 292 delegates on a winner-take-all basis, either statewide or by congressional district. If Trump beats Rubio in his home state of Florida, it could amount to a knockout blow to Rubio. However, if Rubio wins Florida and its jackpot of 99 delegates, he could make up a lot of lost ground. If he wins Ohio and Illinois too, he could possibly take the drivers' seat. 

2016 Republican Delegate Scorecard: Updated for Feb. 24, 2016 

How this works: The scorecard below is not a prediction or forecast. Rather, it's a tool to gauge each major GOP candidate's true progress towards the nomination. At any given point in the primaries, any candidate who exceeds his cumulative delegate target should be regarded as the frontrunner. But, the longer the Republican primaries go on without any candidate coming close to or exceeding 100 percent, the higher the odds of a contested convention. Click here for a larger version of the table. 

A Note on Methodology 

To arrive at state-by-state delegate targets, we first analyzed demographic patterns of support in national as well as entrance/exit polls in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Based on the data, we assume Trump will fare best in states and districts with small shares of college graduates, while Cruz will do best in places with large shares of evangelical protestants. We also assume that Rubio and Kasich, like previous years' contenders in the "establishment" lane, will perform well in bluer and more highly educated states and districts, but will underperform somewhat in caucus states. 

Then, we applied those patterns of support to each state's demographic profile, keeping in mind each state party's unique delegate allocation rules (for example, winner-take-all versus proportional). All states voting prior to March 15, with the exception of South Carolina, award their delegates on a proportional basis, making it less likely one candidate will build an insurmountable early lead. However, on March 15th, both Florida and Ohio will award their delegates on a winner-take-all basis, meaning a candidate who wins a bare plurality in both states could begin to pull away.

No comments:

Post a Comment